Critical Briefing: UK Refrigerant Market Outlook: Q1 2026

As we enter the first quarter of 2026, the UK refrigeration and air conditioning sector faces a significant regulatory shift. DEFRA has moved forward with an ambitious HFC quota reduction proposal, signalling a stricter landscape for anyone managing cooling assets.

The Roadmap to 2048

DEFRA’s preferred proposal introduces a drastically accelerated phase-down. While previous targets aimed for a 79% reduction by 2030, the new trajectory aims to continue cutting HFC use after this point to achieve a 98.6% reduction by 2048.

The revised, stricter phase-downs are set to trigger in 2027. We can already see that this is beginning to influence market behaviour. As a result of these new goals, the HVAC/R industry can expect significant price increases for refrigerant products throughout 2026, particularly for higher GWP (Global Warming Potential) refrigerants.

Protect Your HVAC/R Business in 2026

To mitigate exposure to rising costs and potential product shortages, FSW UK recommends three immediate actions:

• Audit Your Assets: Identify systems running on high-GWP gases (R410A, R134a, R407).
• Accelerate Transitions: Move toward lower-GWP alternatives (such as R32 or HFO blends) now to avoid the 2027 quota squeeze.
• Integrate reclaimed refrigerants into your strategy early, but budget for the expected cost increases as we move through 2026.

While reclaimed refrigerant could remain a critical part of your supply strategy, do not view it as a low-cost “safety net.” As virgin gas availability tightens, demand for reclaimed alternatives will surge, likely driving their prices up in tandem. 

Shop Compliant F-Gas at FSW UK

FSW UK is committed to supplying the UK refrigeration and air conditioning industry with compliant F-gas products that allow HVAC/R professionals to adhere to the strict legal requirements coming into force in the coming years. 
For more information on F-gas availability, including low-GWP alternatives, contact your local FSW UK branch.